It is time we started rethinking America. But as a precursor to doing this, we must each first rethink ourselves. If we are to create something good, something workable for America’s future, we must let go of our entrenched beliefs and look at this country as it actually is today. In 2008, when the United States teetered on the brink of financial Armageddon, then Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan expressed that his worldview had failed him. His worldview absolutely did not fail him... his views were simply proven to be wrong, and that made Greenspan very uncomfortable. Most of us would be extremely uncomfortable with the notion that our worldview is wrong – because it causes cognitive dissonance. “Cognitive dissonance is a discomfort caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. (Festinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.)” The theory of cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a powerful drive to reduce dissonance. They can do this by changing their “attitudes, beliefs, and actions,” or -- perhaps more commonly-- dissonance can be reduced by “justifying, blaming, and denying.” Most of our political leaders are masters of “justifying, blaming and denying,” and as a result, they never make mistakes or are ever wrong Politicians cling dogmatically to whatever worldview is supported by their political base. And we citizens become willing partners in this exercise, because if their views are right, ours are right. And that makes us feel good about ourselves. Politicians may make us angry sometimes, but they also make us feel comfortable with our beliefs and our biases. That is why, in the world of politics, it is seemingly more important to be consistent, than it is to be correct.
Most people's "world views" rely heavily on personal experience, which is essentially anecdotal evidence. We feel our perceptions and beliefs are accurate and factual, even when we don’t have any hard facts to support them. This is not automatically a bad thing. For example, our beliefs can work as motivation… the belief “if I work hard, I can be successful” may inspire us to greater efforts. It may lead to good advice… “working hard leads to success.” The problem arises when a corollary is used to judge other people, Then it becomes a bias: “If you are not successful, you must not be working hard.” It is easier, and more comfortable, to see another’s “failure” as the result of their own actions, rather than resulting from circumstances or chance.
Reality is that all of us have an incomplete and limited perspective from which we see the world and operate in it. The fable of the three blind men and the elephant graphically illustrates this – the blind man who grasped the animal’s trunk believed an elephant was like a large snake, the one who hugged a leg felt an elephant was like a tree trunk, and the one who grabbed the tail believed it was simply a rope. In a way, we are all somewhat blind. And while we are not literally without sight, we can still work to expand our “vision.” Wiser individuals embrace the opportunity to enhance their perspective and supplement there own experience with the perspectives and experiences of others. Reading can give us insight into how others think and about experiences far from our own. Experts and specialists can give us nuance and specifics we can sometimes not even imagine. It is important to recognize that as humans, we are prone to misperception and mistakes. There is nothing wrong with making mistakes. What is wrong is when we deny our mistakes and cling to them dogmatically. Unfortunately, this is standard operating procedure for most of the political leaders who run our country.
A politician who learns from his or her mistakes and changes course is labeled as wishy-washy and a flip-flopper... while the politician who stays the course (albeit wrong) is viewed as principled, of strong character, and ideologically committed. In the real world, it is generally the other way round. A business leader who does not adapt to changing market conditions usually ends up out-competed and, perhaps, unemployed. For a politician it is just the opposite -- politicians who "change" are seen as weak and opportunistic. A running joke is that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Yet, this is often a quality we choose in our political leaders. Here again, this is about cognitive dissonance. If they are wrong, then we are wrong. And for many people, that is an unacceptable proposition. So we demand that that our leaders stay the course and stick to their guns, even when their guns are firing blanks. We allow them to -- nay, demand that they -- squeeze our world into neat little boxes; paint pretty pictures that leave us feeling safe, comfortable and good about ourselves; Whether this is supported by facts or not.
In keeping with this simplistic approach, Politicians almost always mistake correlation with causality -- although they do this selectively, often choosing to ignore science or any relevant information that does not support their position. Example, the economy is weak... Barack Obama is president... ergo, Barack Obama's policies are responsible for the weak economy. This ignores all the pre-Obama private banking sector misdeeds and government missteps that contributed and continue to contribute to a weak economy; Ignores the fact that collapsing, under-collateralized banks created such a seize-up in the capital markets that businesses slashed jobs at unprecedented rates and hoarded cash -- and continue to hoard cash -- despite recent record profits; And ignores the fact that years of pushing for expanded international trade and economic inter-connectedness have left our country more vulnerable to conditions of the global economy. In general, this just ignores pretty much all the actual economic pressures and conditions that have contributed to a protracted downturn. In fact, against the backdrop of these unprecedented economic conditions, it is extremely difficult to evaluate the success or failure of Obama's policies. The problem is simply too big for any policy to solve (though policy can help mitigate the damage).
Mistaking correlation for causality by no means follows party lines – The first President Bush’s policies were blamed for a weak economy. His son, President George W. Bush receives heat in some circles for his failure to stop the events of 9/11, or even for “causing” it. The working wisdom is that a president owns whatever happens while they are in office. And while president’s are supposed to at least get the credit when things go well, the partisan perception is that our guy or gal’s policies would have worked better than whoever was in office (think Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton).
Unfortunately, we do not have the luxury of being able to see how different policies would have played out under different administrations. Would Al Gore have been able to foil the 9/11 assassins? He might say yes, and it's possible (and we will never know), but I would say unlikely. In the same way, it is easy for Republican's to say current economic conditions would have been much better under them, but it is difficult to see how. The magnitude of our economic problem seems beyond governments capacity to control. Business leaders say that only increased demand will bring back jobs and growth. Most businesspeople favor a balanced approach(including tax and revenue increases) to stimulate growth, but the Republican plan for shrinking government will in fact shrink demand in the near term, leading to further job cuts in both government and the private sector, and will very likely perpetuate and magnify our problems. Long term it is necessary to get our spending under control and our fiscal house in order -- but severe cuts to this still sickly economy is equivalent to taking a patient off life support after an operation.
Republicans are also quick to criticize Obama for “promising” to keep unemployment under 8%, but fail to acknowledge that conditions exiting the Bush administration were far worse than even they imagined. Obama did not “renege” on a promise. This is not a George H.W. Bush “Read my lips…” moment. The unemployment rate is not a “choice” that the President makes. In 2003, when George W. Bush launched the second Iraq war, his administration promised a quick and decisive victory, and assured the public that we would be welcomed as liberators. This did not happen. Both Iraq and Afghanistan proved to be protracted grinds that we are still engaged in. Republicans did not criticize George Bush for underestimating the difficulty of these propositions. They did not accuse him of “reneging on a promise.” They lauded him, and urged the electorate to stay the course: which we did.
Both Bush and Obama miscalculated. The fact that today’s economic recovery is slower than anticipated is no reason to give up on Obama. The economic morass is more indicative of the deep hole we were in, and Obama has recently shown himself willing to moderate his goals to economic realities. He has even showed a willingness to address the problems surrounding sacred cows such as Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. Republicans, meanwhile, are holding a hard and simplistic line. Their principal economic policy is shrinking the government and maintaining the Bush tax cuts. They fail to explain how the Bush tax cuts will help the economy, given that they have been in place for one of the worst economic decades in our nations history. In fact, the Bush tax cuts correlate with our worst 10 years since the Great Depression. Does that mean they are the cause of our economic problems? No… but they are clearly not the solution.
Perhaps it is time for Republicans to give up on a 10 year failed experiment, eliminate the Bush tax cuts and big corporate subsidies, and recognize that the share of wealth controlled by the wealthiest 3% of Americans is at an all time high. The discrepancy in wealth between rich and middle class/poor is accelerating at a rapid pace and is the greatest in the industrialized world. Without a vibrant middle/working class, America is doomed to become a second tier nation.
Democrats also have to be held accountable. Long term, our government has to learn to live within its means. Waste and fraud must be rooted out, and government workers must be reminded that they are employees of the people and for the people. Democrats have to recognize that we are likely going to have to cut back on entitlements. And we cannot afford to be a nanny state. Too many people are defrauding the system and draining resources that could benefit those truly in need. Unions have to support policies that protect all workers, not just their own members, and understand that American competitiveness is crucial to our long-term success. Unions have to choose to be self-policing and eliminate workers who are not pulling their weight. This would benefit companies, American competitiveness, and the vast majority of union workers.
In short, rethinking America will only happen if both Democrats and Republicans get their own houses in order. We will only succeed when our leaders are willing to confront their own constituencies and tell them the truth, not simply what they want to hear.
Obviously, there are grave risks for the leaders who choose to do this – creating cognitive dissonance in ones base may provoke them to desert you. And there is certainly no shortage of partisans willing to pander who will step into the void this creates. A Republican who says “We have to raise taxes,” or a Democrat we says “We have to cut entitlements” may be throwing themselves to the wolves, but they will both be speaking the truth in our world as it is now. And only if brave leaders step forward and act in America’s best interest – and not simply their own (e.g. doing what it takes to get elected and stay in office) will we live up to the promise that America holds. One can only wonder what Alan Greenspan’s view of the world is today. Did cognitive dissonance lead him to denial or adaptation?
Adman Leo Burnett said, “To swear off making mistakes is very easy. All you have to do is swear off having ideas.” I want a leader who has ideas. I want a leader who makes mistakes, levels with the American people when he or she does, and learns from their mistakes. Many Americans may or may not be ready for that kind of honesty from their leaders, but it may be the only opportunity for us to achieve the greatness to which we, as individuals and collectively, aspire. So let’s demand that of our leaders. Let’s start the process of rethinking America… but first, let’s rethink ourselves.
